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Intelligence Analysis as
Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and
Arguments: Connecting the Dots
Gheorghe Tecuci, David A. Schum, Dorin Marcu,
Mihai Boicu |
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Intelligence Analysis as
Discovery of Evidence,
Hypotheses, and
Arguments: Connecting
the Dots |
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Hardcover: 272 pages |
Publisher: Cambridge
University Press
(August 2016) |
ISBN:
9781107122604 |
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This
unique book on
intelligence analysis
covers several vital but
often overlooked topics.
It teaches the
evidential and
inferential issues
involved in "connecting
the dots" to draw
defensible and
persuasive conclusions
from masses of evidence:
from observations we
make, or questions we
ask, we generate
alternative hypotheses
as explanations or
answers; we make use of
our hypotheses to
generate new lines of
inquiry and discover new
evidence; and we test
the hypotheses with the
discovered evidence. To
facilitate understanding
of these issues and
enable the performance
of complex analyses, the
book introduces an
intelligent analytical
tool, called
Disciple-CD. |
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Readers will
practice with Disciple-CD and learn
how to formulate hypotheses; develop
arguments that reduce complex
hypotheses to simpler ones; collect
evidence to evaluate the simplest
hypotheses; and assess the relevance
and the believability of evidence,
which combine in complex ways to
determine its inferential force and
the probabilities of the hypotheses.
See
http://lac.gmu.edu/IABook/ |
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